Prognostic scores in a gastroenterology intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND Several prognostic systems have been developed and validated in general Intensive Care Units (ICUs). No assessment of these scores was performed in specialized Gastroenterology Intensive Care Units (GICUs). AIM To assess the prognostic accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores systems to predict mortality in a GICU. METHODS Retrospective study of 300 consecutively admissions in a GICU. Demographics, indication for admission, APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scores and survival at GICU discharge were recorded. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operations characteristic (ROC) curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC). Calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS Overall GICU mortality was 5.3%. APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA mean scores of nonsurvivors (21.9, 46.2 and 9.3, respectively) were found to be significantly higher than those of survivors (11.9, 26.7 and 2.2, respectively) (p < 0.001). Discrimination was excellent for all the prognostic systems, with AUC = 0.900, 0.903 and 0.965 for APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA, respectively. Similarly, APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scores achieved good calibration, with p = 0.671, 0.928 and 0.775, respectively. Among the three scores, SOFA showed the best performance, with overall correctness of prediction of 94.0%, while it was 86.2% for APACHE II and 82.7% for SAPS II. CONCLUSIONS in GICU, APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scores have excellent prognostic accuracy and, among the three scores, SOFA has the greatest overall correctness of prediction.